Great post. It reminds me greatly of Joseph Tainter's argument in The Collapse of Complex Societies about peer polities and societal collapse.

From my personal notes on his text:

-past collapses occurred in two different political situations: a dominant state in isolation or as

part of a cluster of peer polities

-with global travel and communication, the isolated dominant state disappeared and only

competitive peer polities now exist

-such polities tend to get caught up in spiralling competitive investments as they seek to

outmaneuver others and evolve greater complexity together

-the polities caught up in this competition increasingly experience declining marginal returns and must invest ever-increasing amounts leading to greater economic weakness

-withdrawing from this spiral or collapsing is not an option without risking being subsumed by a

competitor

-it is this trap of competition that will continue to drive the pursuit of complexity regardless of

human/environmental costs

-incentives and economic reserves can support this situation for a lengthy period as witnessed

by the Roman and Mayan experiences where centuries of diminishing returns were endured

-ever-increasing costs and ever-decreasing marginal returns typify peer polities in competition

-this ends in either domination by one state and a new energy subsidy or collapse of all

-“Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual

nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers

collapse in like manner.” (p. 214)